NY2X - New York is growing 2x faster than in 2019

In January and February 2021, the five county New York area studied grew by 1,900 people and an estimated $1.2 billion. In January and February 2019, it was -7,100 and +$360 million. That means the population growth trend reversed +9,000 over 2019 and income growth rates were up 233% over 2019.

This defies a trend of nearly -111,000 in population loss in 2020 as COVID took hold. While the gain is small, the underlying data holds strong indications of resilience in the two most urban counties: New York and the Bronx.

Over January and February 2021

County Population Flow Income Flow Trend
New York +21,000 +$2 billion Up
Bronx +2,100 +$590 million Up
Kings -5,300 -$192 million Up
Queens -10,400 -$655 million Down
Richmond -5,500 -$554 million Down
Total +1,900 +$1.2 billion Up

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Map showing the change in population and average income in New York's five counties.
A map highlighting our research findings. Please download the full report for more detailed information.

Combining January and February 2021, New York County gained +21,000 people and +$2 billion in income in early 2021, while Bronx County gained +2,100 people +$590 million in income.

Queens County continues to skid, down 10,400 people and $655 million over January and February 2021. Kings County lost population, down about 5,300 people in January and February 2021, along with some $192 million in income.

Richmond is also down both in population and income, having lost some 5,500 people and $554 million in January and February 2021 combined.

An in-depth probing of the data suggests that things began to change in New York in Q3 of 2020 — the migration patterns seen in that period were perhaps an indication of what to expect in Q3 of 2021.

As we move further into 2021, the trend is towards continued strength in New York and Bronx counties, overall population growth for the five county area, and net positive income growth in three of the counties examined.