AMC Entertainment made a recent investment in a gold mine, but even their CEO's fourth quarter statement suggested the first quarter of 2022 won't yield the same pots of gold compared to fourth quarter 2021 profits. The CEO's right.
Foot traffic data through March 16th, 2022 shows AMC needs to make up a 36% attendance difference in Q1 2022 to match their Q4 performance.
With an average of around a million visitors a week so far this year, it doesn't look like the gold mine has paid off yet. Foot traffic can tell us when it will, though. Our recent research showed a high correlation between foot traffic and quarterly earnings.
Here's our correlation of AMC's foot traffic and revenue back to Q4 2018:
As you can see, Q4 showed some bounce-back in profit with traffic boosted compared to prior 2021 quarters. For all quarters in our data set, we found a significant model fit with an R-Squared value of 0.83. This shows a high correlation between foot traffic data and quarterly earnings.
What did 2021 foot traffic look like for AMC?
AMC's high-profit Q4 is no surprise when reviewing their foot traffic data. It appears holiday boosts in traffic, despite the Omicron variant, pushed AMC's revenue to its highest level since the start of the pandemic.
With the first quarter of 2022 drawing to a close, what can foot traffic data tell us about what's to come?
The Batman was no slouch in drawing foot traffic to AMC'S theaters, though President's Day weekend won the prize for maximum traffic. The Batman drew nearly 300,000 people to AMC's red-carpeted seats, with comparable traffic the following weekend.
Our forecasts for the remainder of March 2022 show reduced traffic around 265,000 per weekend -- unfortunately not enough to match the traffic total of over 17 million visitors in Q4.
A review of the upcoming release slate shows only The Lost City as a possible traffic driver for the final weekend of the quarter. Maybe Sandra Bullock and Channing Tatum are the heroes we all need?
Unacast's daily foot traffic data comes on a 4-day and a 26-day lag, allowing for revenue forecasts to be made within days or weeks of quarter close . Our rundown of AMC venues comes from our expansive over 4,000-brand Venue Data Package, including multiple prominent companies traded on the stock market. Remember to check out our research on traffic to revenue for a full breakdown of how you can predict revenue far in advance of quarterly earnings.
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